Risk management in the petrochemical industry includes a wide variety of activities, one of which is quantitative risk assessment. The quality of a quantitative risk assessment study is highly dependent on the effectiveness of the hazard identification stage ― it is essential that all applicable hazards and potential hazard scenarios are considered. When analyzing large refineries, the number of hazard scenarios can run into thousands; so it is important that these hazard scenarios have a relevant risk impact on the study results, while excluding those scenarios with negligible risk contribution. Two general types of scenarios leading to loss of containment are typically considered: “generic” and “non-generic”.
This paper outlines and describes a tool to enhance operational risk management ― it describes an effective methodology for streamlining hazard scenario identification and development for large, site wide, refinery quantitative risk assessments. The paper also provides practical guidance for the estimation of both “generic” and “non-generic” scenario failure rate data. Safeguards such as basic process controls and safety instrumented systems that can be used to mitigate undesirable events and to reduce risks are considered in the scenario identification and development methodology.
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