Risk-Based Approach - Consequence Analysis

The main purpose of the Consequence Analysis phase to be developed during the execution of a risk-based quantitative assessment is to answer the following question: “Which are the impacts of identified hazardous scenarios?” This step is critical for estimating reliable and accurate effects / consequences from Loss of Containment scenarios (LOCs), avoiding unrealistic results that would directly impact on the decision-making process. Additionally, it is essential that Consequence Analysis includes the identification and quantification of ALL potential outcomes that a hazardous release may cause. Event Tree Analysis (ETA) methodology is a valuable tool for identifying all these potential outcomes.

The present paper introduces the consequence analysis step by providing guidance on consequence modeling (i.e., source term characterization, dispersion of harmful gases/vapors, fires and explosions) and criteria for event trees development.

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